CredoWriters: Wakdok, Samuel Stephen.
President Muhammad Hosni Mubarak has dates with history. His 30years rule on the presidential throne faces the greatest challenge. How he comes out of this will determine how the final history about him will be written or how he will write his final history. Thirty years or three decades is a long time when you consider that six US Presidents have ruled within this period, four of which ruled for 2 terms of four years with only George Bush Snr. ruling for one term and Barrack Obama still in his first term. To identify the three decades of his rule we iterate three years of each decade on world history with particular impact to the Arab world/Middle east using a 3 by 4 matrix of years 1979,1980,1981; years 1989,1990,1991; years 1999,2000,2001 and years 2009,2010,2011 which is the year of the final show down.
Egypt is one of the world’s oldest civilizations with a long known history of its Pharaohs, Mummies and Pyramids. It is the only non-maghreb nation in North Africa
Egypt is the most populated Arab country in the world with 80million citizens. 90 percent are Moslems, 9 percent Coptic Christians and 1 percent other Christians. Its three principal cities are Cairo, Alexandria and Suez. Its strategic geographical location especially after the construction of the Suez Canal connecting the red sea with the Mediterranean Sea makes it the shortest route between the west and the east. The Mediterranean climate is a warm invitation to tourists from all over the world.
Cell One:
The Iranian Revolution of 11/2/1979 opened a new chapter in the history of Middle East. The Islamic revolution over threw the Shah of Iran (Formerly Persia) and Ayatollah Khomeini became the supreme leader of the Islamic republic of Iran. On 4/5/1979 Margaret Thatcher became the first female Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. On 22/9/1980 the eight year Iraq-Iran war broke out. The United States would go on to back Iraq in the war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. President Ronald Reagan was sworn in for his first term as US President on 20/1/1981. Pope John Paul was shot in an attempted assassination on 13/5/1981 and Princess Charles of Wales married Dianna Spencer on 29/7/1981. Suddenly Anwar Sadat was assassinated on 6/10/1981 for signing a peace treaty with Israel by Khalid Islambouli an Islamic hardliner. Mubarak who was the Vice President became the President. This era marked the height of cold war between the West and Soviet Union, a bi polar world with two super powers the USA and the USSR; this period witness a stern competition between Capitalism and Marxism. Black and white TV was in vogue, analogue Telephone was the means of communication. There was a serious expansion of multi national corporations leading to internalization of capital. The Mafia in Italy and America were at their worst. Our age brackets were either toddlers or not born.
Cell Two:
The Tiananmen Square protest in China which led to the massacre of Chinese protesters took place on 4/6/1989; brave Chinese faced the tanks of the China’s red army. General Omar Al-Bashir came to power in an Islamist backed coup on 30/6/1989. He introduced Sharia law across Sudan which has Christians and animists in the south, this escalated the second civil war in Sudan; once again bringing the matter of political Islam to the fore. Sudan is Egypt’s neighbor to the south and the largest country in Africa in terms of land mass. The Berlin wall fell on 9/11/1989 signaling the collapse of the iron curtain. Nelson Mandela was released after 27 years in prison on 11/2/1990. (The CIA had earlier caused his arrest by the South African Apartheid regime in 1963)
On 2/8/1990 Saddam Hussein of Iraq invaded Kuwait. Margaret Thatcher resigns as British Prime Minister on 22/11/1990 after been forced out by her own Conservative party. The Invasion of Kuwait by Saddam Hussein led to the outbreak of the Persian Gulf War 1 code named Operation Desert Storm on 17/1/1991. The US army (which supported Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war) led the invasion of Iraq and fighting on the same side with the Soviet army for the first time.
The Somali Revolutionary Socialist Party was thrown out on 26/1/1991 and Somali Dictator Siad Barre fled to Nigeria. That was the last time Somalia had a functional government and Islamist rebel groups have been battling the Fragile AU backed government; Somalia is the world’s number one failed state.
The final collapse of the USSR on 31/12/1991 led to a unipolar world with the USA as the single world super power. Iraq was the dominant Arab military power and the world witnessed increasing shift towards market economy with structural adjustments for developing economies. Digital Telephone followed coloured TV supported by Satellite TV. Our age brackets were either in primary or secondary schools.
Cell Three:
On 6/9/1999 Mubarak survived another assassination attempt. Ivory Coast the then most stable West African country witnessed its first military coup on 25/12/1999 when General Guei ousted President Henri Bedi, this will degenerate into a civil war between 2002 and 2004. Boris Yeltsin of Russian resigned on 31/12/1999 paving way for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to beome the Russian President on 1/1/2000. The Camp David Accord ii pushed by President Bill Clinton was signed on 11/7/2000 and this was meant to be the final settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. George Bush Jnr became the US president on 20/1/2001.The terrorist attack on the WTO centre and Pentagon in USA took place on 11/9/2001 and this redefined the global war on terror. The CIA trained Osama Bin Laden becomes the most wanted man in the world. The United States believed Bin Laden was hiding in the mountains of Afghanistan and they invaded the country on 20/11/2001 to remove the Taliban government in response to the twin bombings of world trade centre in New York. This era raised the stake on international terrorism and globalization became the order of the day. Russia under Putin will rise from the ashes of the Soviet Union to be a major player. The introduction of email and GSM revolutionized communication, and cables overtook satellite TV. Our age brackets were between secondary and tertiary schools.
Cell Four:
Barrack Obama was sworn in as the first black President of the US on 19/1/2009. On 12/06/2009 Iran held an election which was disputed by the opposition sparking a mass protest which was quelled by the use of force. The Supreme Leader of Iran Ayotollah Khameni backs radical President Ahmadinejad. David Cameron of the conservative party became the youngest Prime Minister in Great Britain on 11/5/2010 and the first coalition in 70 years. In Ivory Coast two men each claiming the rights to be Presidents swore themselves in as Presidents on 4/12/2010. This was the aftermath of a disputed election held to reunite the Ivory Coast after a bitter civil war which tore the country into two; the rebel controlled Moslem north and the government controlled Christian south.
On 17/12/2010 Mohammed Bouazizi set himself ablaze in Tunisia sparking street protest on the high cost of living and high unemployment in Tunisia he died on 4/1/2011. The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) which ended the Sudanese civil war fixed 9/1/2011 to 15/1/2011 for a referendum to take place in the autonomous Southern Sudan and South Sudanese overwhelmingly voted for succession from the repressive Moslem North.
The Protest in Tunisia spread to Algeria and Tunisian ex-President Ben-Ali was ousted as he flees Tunisia on 15/1/2011 to Saudi Arabia. Dubbed the Jasmine revolution, the Tunisian revolution was a people’s revolt without a leader. The Domino effect of the Tunisian protest resonated in Jordan, Algeria, Yemin and Egypt. Irked by the dictatorial and corrupt regimes in the Arab world the people decided to take to the streets. Unlike the Islamic revolution of 1979 in Iran, this is a people’s protest, though it gives the banned Islamists parties an opportunity to come back to the political scene of their countries. The revolution in social media like face book and twitter helped to mobilize protesters and aggravate the demonstrations. The recent economic meltdown makes this era one of austerity and bail outs.
Mubarak Appointed former Intelligence chief Omar Suleyman on 29/1/2011 as his Vice President the first in his 30 years rule, this has knocked off his Son Gamel out of the succession line and may pave way for an Egyptian Transition. The rising profile of China is a big challenge to the western powers and Iran is the dominant Power in the Arab region. Our age brackets are either getting married or some have become parents.
Improbabilities:
Prince William son of Prince Charles and Diana who wedded in 1981 when Mubarak became president will marry Kate Middleton in West Minister Abbey (London) on 29/4/2011. Kate is presently wearing Princess Diana’s engagement ring, Prince William was not born when Mubarak became the Egyptian President. Will Mubarak defy all odds and still be the President of Egypt on the wedding day?
Pope John Paul II who survived an assassination attempt in 1981 the same year Mubarak became President will be beatified by the Roman Catholic Church, a step to sainthood on 1/5/2011
Will Mubarak the President who became a king still be on his throne to witness the beatification of Pope John Paul II?
South Sudan or any name it will be called will become the world’s newest country on 9/7/2011 splitting Egypt’s Southern neighbour into two.
What ever the outcome will be, whether Mubarak will remain the President or not, he has a place as the longest serving ruler of Egypt since Ismail and he has played a very vital role in stabilizing the turbulent Middle East by been an ally of Israel. Iran of course is spreading its influence in the region and as a sworn enemy of Israel, Iran will be happy to see Mubarak go, that is why despite quelling its own revolt in 2009 by force; Iran is urging Mubarak to listen to the voice of its people. The United States has always had Mubarak as an ally; the hypocrites that they are, U.S. now says it stands with the People of Egypt. With a Hezbollah led Government in Lebanon, Iran’s influence is growing in the region and Israel will loose another ally in the region if Mubarak is forced out. The Israeli Prime Minister fears Egypt may end up with a radical Islamic government like that of Iran. The banned opposition Moslem Brotherhood may win election in the nearest future if not now.
The outcome of 1/2/2011 one million man march in Tahrir square and the general strikes called by the April 6th Movement (a face book based protest movement started in 2008) will determine if the ex air force officer who became the President and eventually became a king will either make history or will be marred by history. Until then, Mubarak has a lot of dates with history. If only he left office before now, will he be on this brink?
Eplilogue
On the 11/02/2011 other wise written as 11/02/11 Mubarak steps down. He will not make the dates of the royal wedding, canonisation or independence of a new nation. However that was the same day as 11/02/1979 when the royal regime in Iran collapsed after guerrillas armed rebel troops loyal to the Islamists overwhelmed troops loyal to the Shah in armed street fighting. It is also celebrated yearly as Islamic Revolution’s Victory day with a national holiday in Iran.
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1/2/2011
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